Tory Leadership Race – 3 fall at first hurdle

Tory Chatter June 15

Above – change in mindshare volume by day, by candidate, for the last 4 weeks. Boris Johnson continues to dominate polls and mindshare

As they came to the first hurdle, 3 fell – Esther McVey and Mark Harper pulled out after low vote levels – and low signs of support from the DataSwarm system last week. Andrea Leadsom also tallied a low vote score, despite a relatively high showing on our system (though as mentioned in a previous post, we did not think this support was real). The other tail ender in our system was Matt Hancock, who polled one vote less than Rory Stewart in the actual vote.

At any rate, the vote is a “hard” datapoint to calibrate against, so how did the % distributions of the votes tally vs our Jun 7 split of social media chatter, and how does it compare with our Jun 14th split? The following chart shows the 3 columns of percentage share per candidate. The support of those who have fallen already will  shift over the next week or so, and that will be interesting to track (but as a % they are still relatively small, we have to wait for some of the major players to pull out for it be material)

Candidate Jun-07 Vote Jun-14
Johnson 60% 41% 59%
Gove 10% 13% 11%
Stewart 8% 7% 11%
Raab 8% 10% 9%
Hunt 9% 15% 7%
Javid 2% 8% 2%
Hancock* 2% 6% 2%
100% 100% 100%

(Percentages are adjusted for the DataSwarm system’s July 7 scores and and the Vote share, to show 100% of those remaining.)

Apart from Boris Johnson, who has far more share of social media volume than votes, the other major anomalies of votes vs system volume were Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid and Matt Hancock, who all got far more votes than the discussion share would suggest. The biggest riser in volume of chatter this week was Rory Stewart, the biggest faller was Jeremy Hunt.

Ones to watch this week, then:  Matt Hancock, with low vote and low mindshare, will probably be out at the next round, or even before* . Sajid Javid, despite having a good vote tally, continues to not grow mindshare, and Jeremy Hunt’s is flagging. Rory Stewart’s rise continues, from 6% to when we started tracking on May 24th, 8% on June 7th (up to 11% now, equal to Michael Gove in 2nd place).

There are 2 televised debates, one on Sunday 16th and one on Tuesday 18th, it will be interesting to see if they change this table significantly

*Matt Hancock pulled out as we were writing this….