Brexit: Will we stay or will we go now? (Part 2)

Leave v Remain 30 July

Cumulative discussion of terms, April to July 2019


In January we last looked at the support for Leave vs Remain (over here) and they were closely tracking each other. In a nutshell, we have been tracking Leave vs Remain trends in the UK since before Brexit (that’s how we correctly predicted it) but given the election of Boris Johnson and the reshuffle of the Tory cabinet for a renewed focus on a Brexit outcome, we thought it might be worth looking at the situation again – so we ran the DataSwarm Analytic Engine and the result is shown above.

In short, for most of this year Leave and Remain have pretty much tracked each other (the 2 have been criss-crossing each other but largely level pegging since 2016). Recently there has been  a small but (for these two) sustained upkick in the Leave data-track. However, this could still be temporary as has been the case occasionally before – typically some event lifts the one, but over time it returns to the other. We also tracked no-deal and referendum as “fellow passenger” memes and note that the no-deal discussion has rocketed, whereas the 2nd referendum has flatlined (in January it was closely tracking Leave and Remain). This implies that (for now, anyway) the 2nd Referendum is less supported than it was whereas the 2no-deal” option is far more influential in the national mindset.

Whether this means the 31st October date of leaving the EU is any more likely is still too early to tell, up till now the slim Leave majority has so far proven unable to overturn the inertia of the status quo. If in a month or so’s time we see a sustained gap between Leave and Remain occurring it may become likely, but right now the data is still suggesting a continuation of continual delay.