Since May 2019 we have been participating in the IARPA 2nd Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge , Round 1 has just ended and we came 5th (out of about 40 participating organizations) overall and so have won a Round 1 prize! IARPA is the US Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (The Intelligence equivalent of DARPA) and its[…]
Cumulative discussion of terms, April to July 2019 In January we last looked at the support for Leave vs Remain (over here) and they were closely tracking each other. In a nutshell, we have been tracking Leave vs Remain trends in the UK since before Brexit (that’s how we correctly predicted it) but given[…]
The graph above shows the cumulative rise in relative sentiment of Slack, from 28 days before the IPO (we are up to Day 27 for Slack, as seen on the chart) compared to the same for Uber, Lyft and Pinterset. Later today it will have its IPO, and we are curious to see if this[…]
DataSwarm Markets brings near real time social media data analytics to investment analysis. DataSwarm Markets processes social media messages about stocks as they occur, calculating the sentiment and publishing it in near-real time. This is useful for traders and analysts, for example for looking at pre-market opening sentiment, timing trades during the trading period, and[…]
Above – change in mindshare volume by day, by candidate, for the last 4 weeks. Boris Johnson continues to dominate polls and mindshare As they came to the first hurdle, 3 fell – Esther McVey and Mark Harper pulled out after low vote levels – and low signs of support from the DataSwarm system last[…]
Today is Theresa May’s last day as leader of the Conservative party, the “phoney race” of the last few weeks is over and from now on it is for real. The chart above shows the share of social media volume that each candidate has. As with when we first measured it, Boris Johnson tops the[…]
With today’s news that Prime Minister May will resign on 7th June, it was clearly time to have another look at the stakes for all the potential runners, following our last check in January 2019. Here is today’s graph, tracking back about a month’s worth of data of the cumulative social media conversation (there is[…]
In testing the Dataswarm Analytic Engine on stock analysis and prediction, we are tracking the events leading up to the IPOs of a number of “Unicorns” – Uber, Lyft, AirBnb and Slack – to see if there is anyhing that can be learned from the social (and other) media coverage to predict what the IPO[…]
Chart end of day March 29 – Volume of “analyst” discussion on 4 key unicorns, starting with Lyft S-1 filing on March 1st A number of the better known large private Tech companies (the “Unicorns”) recently announced they are going to hold Initial Public Offerings (IPO’s) of public shares (or stock) in 2019, in fact[…]
Above – comparing traffic between “No-Deal” and “Revoke” tropes on Twitter, 1.30pm March 22nd. Note the “dip” on the curves on the last day is because we are ony half way through the day and yesterday was a major peak, it will rise as the day progresses and traffic count increases. Below – comparing traffic[…]