DataSwarm Award winning Technology
- Institute of Engineering & Technology (UK IIIE) Award for Innovation, for election prediction results 2018
- IARPA US Government Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge 2019 Award
We are not wedded to any one form of prediction, we are best described as using Hybrid forecasting, combining a mix of approaches:
- Statistical / Probabilistic methods
- Machine Learning / Deep Learning (“AI” in the modern usage)
- System Dynamics & Simulation
- Operations Research & Game Theory
- Qualitative Analysis
Technology: The DataSwarm Zeitgeist
The DataSwarm Zeitgeist is the composite of many signals we track in a particular space. In the picture below are different memes from the Clinton / Trump 2016 election showing Trump (largest blue sentiment circle on the top right) well in the lead a few days before the electionext stuff followed by a Zeitgist picture (both placeholders)
Why the name DataSwarm ?
We were looking at a large number of different zeitgeist memes (as above) moving graphically over time one day, the various memes looked like data “dots” moving like swarm of bees – all going in roughly the same directiion, some rising, some falling, some falling behind, some accelerating. The insight is that the mass of the swarm is more predictive than looking at original dots.
DataSwarm Markets – trading on the Zeitgeist signal
The prototype system was built after 2019 IARPA Challenge experience.
- First test – Mk I systems December 2019 to November 2021 trading in US markets long only.:
- Return in period – 63% vs. S&P 49%, and half the risk (see chart below).
- Currently testing DataSwarm Markets Mk 2 system, trading both long and short approaches across more asset classes.
Alan studied Engineering and IT systems, and has lectured on simulation and systems dynamics. He has consulted for Deloitte and McKinsey, and worked at senior levels in Telecoms, Internet and Marketing businesses.
Janet studied International Business and Modern Languages and has a background in social media analytics and emarketing. As a consultant in the digital transformation space clients include large corporates and the public sector implementing emerging technologies and adapting to new ways of working.
David studied Physics, Electronics and has an MSc in Data Communications. He has worked for many leading TV companies such as the BBC, NDS and Farncombe, focusing on security, content meta-data and system integration. He is a member of the IET and the IEEE. (mention Sky??)
Andrew has many years experience as an entrepreneur in the new media space having founded a number of startup businesses, combined with a long track record in the design and development of complex IT systems. Andrew thrives on complexity and innovation, he is a strong communicator and an ideas incubator.