Blog

New DataSwarm site – Well, we had to change web hosts and found our old site was on a WordPress theme that no longer existed, with a level of php no longer supported – that’s in only 5 years since writing it. Anyway, we took the opportunity to remove a lot of surplus content and… Continue reading Unplanned Obsolescence

Technology analyst and journalist Andrew Orlowski contacted us about an article he was writing in The Telegraph (article is here) about prediction techniques using social media. We thought it might be useful to add some more detail showing what can be done using social (and other) media to make predictions. How it works In essence… Continue reading Forecasting stock prices using the Wisdom of Crowds

For the last 2 1/2 years we have been focussing on developing the Dataswarm Markets system, using the lessons from our IARPA experience to build a system to predict financial asset prices and related geopolitical issues. We traded US stocks in the US market to test the system, between December 2019 and and Novenber 2021.… Continue reading Dataswarm trading on the US Stock Markets

While most of our time was spent on building the Mk I asset training system, Following the call from the Royal Society for modellers, we did lend some of our resource. We used system dynamic models to simulate the impact of Covid in major cities (we were working with a global team investigating city level… Continue reading What did you do in the Plague?

Since May 2019 we have been participating in the IARPA 2nd Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge , Round 1 has just ended and we came 5th (out of about 40 participating organizations) overall and so have won a Round 1 prize! IARPA is the US Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (The Intelligence equivalent of DARPA) and its… Continue reading Taking on the IARPA Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge (and winning)

It’s true, in the Information Technology section, for our social data analytics system, and we can’t really believe it when we look at the competition (over here), but there it is…. We suspect predicting multiple elections correctly in a row, including the US and UK 2017 elections (against all the polls) had something to do… Continue reading DataSwarm IET (Institute of Engineers and Technologists) Innovation awards

Diagram showing more Tory memes in the top right, the memetic “sweet spot” of relevance and influence, There is a far higher intersection between “Theresa” and “May” than between Hillary and Clinton, which reduces her memetic impact. It’s the day before the UK general election, and our system is showing that on Twitter at any… Continue reading UK 2017 Election Prediction via Social Media

(Diagram tracking the US Election memes – Trump is the big blob ahead on the top right) On Saturday November 5th we decided to “go public” with our prediction that Donald Trump was in pole position to win the US Presidential Election. We were in a small minority, most polls and researchers were calling it… Continue reading We Predicted Trump would win – here’s how

The genesis of the DataSwarm Analytic Engine was when we were asked by the BBC to build a system that could “find the Zeitgeist”. This was all very well, the problem initially was “what is a zeitgesist”, never mind how to find one. The spirit of the age Zeitgeist is a German word, it literally… Continue reading Finding the Zeitgeist